Measuring Under-Five Mortality: Validation of New Low-Cost Methods

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Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Case Study ALL MEMBERS OF A SINGLE FAMILY INCLUDING A 5-MONTHS OLD INFANT HAVING TUBERCULOSIS – A CASE REPORT

Introduction: The incidence and number of tuberculosis (TB) cases have been increased dramatically all over the world. It is a major public health problem in Bangladesh too. Case Summary: A 5-months old male infant, immunized as per EPI schedule, 3rd issue of a nonconsanguinous parents residence at downtown, Dhaka from a poor socioeconomic background was admitted into the Paediatrics ward, Bangladesh Medical College Hospital on 11th March 2004 with fever for 1 month, dry cough for 21 days, loose motion and vomiting fo

Optimisation, validation and field applicability of a 13C-sucrose breath test to assess intestinal function in environmental enteropathy among children in resource poor settings: study protocol for a prospective study in Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Jamaica, Peru and Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: Environmental enteropathy (EE) is suspected to be a cause of growth faltering in children with sustained exposure to enteric pathogens, typically in resource-limited settings. A major hindrance to EE research is the lack of sensitive, non-invasive biomarkers. Current biomarkers measure intestinal permeability and inflammation, but not the functional capacity of the gut. Australian researchers have demonstrated proof of concept for an EE breath test based on using naturally 13C-enriched sucrose, derived from maize, to assay intestinal sucrase activity, a digestive enzyme that is impaired in villus blunting. Here, we describe a coordinated research project to optimise, validate and evaluate the usability of a breath test protocol based on highly enriched 13C-sucrose to quantify physiological dysfunction in EE in relevant target populations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We use the 13C-sucrose breath test (13C-SBT) to evaluate intestinal sucrase activity in two phases. First, an optimisation and validation phase will (1) confirm that a 13C-SBT using highly enriched sucrose tracers reports similar information to the naturally enriched 13C-SBT; (2) examine the dose-response relationship of the test to an intestinal sucrase inhibitor; (3) validate the 13C-SBT in paediatric coeliac disease (4) validate the highly enriched 13C-SBT against EE defined by biopsy in adults and (5) validate the 13C-SBT against EE defined by the urinary lactulose:rhamnose ratio (LR) among children in Peru. Second, a cross-sectional study will be conducted in six resource-limited countries (Bangladesh, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Peru and Zambia) to test the usability of the optimised 13C-SBT to assess EE among 600 children aged 12-15 months old. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval will be obtained from each participating study site. By working as a consortium, the test, if shown to be informative of EE, will demonstrate strong evidence for utility across diverse, low-income and middle-income country paediatric populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04109352; Pre-results

Integrating ecosystem services and climate change responses in coastal wetlands development plans for Bangladesh

This study explores the integration of ecosystem services and climate change adaptation in development plans for coastal wetlands in Bangladesh. A new response framework for adaptation is proposed, based on an empirical analysis and consultations with stakeholders, using a modified version of the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework. The framework is tested in the Narail district of Bangladesh, where temperature has increased by about 1 0C in the summer in combination with an increase in rainfall of 0.70 mm day-1 yr-1 in the last decade. Calibrated model (MAGICC/SENGEN) projections forecast, on average, a temperature increase of up to 5 0C and an increase in rainfall of 25% by the end of this century. Water diversion in the upstream regions of the Ganges delta contributes to increase water scarcity in the dry season. Enhanced rainfall and the immense pressure of water discharges from upstream water sources are increasing the risk of floods and river erosion in the dry season. An increase in the water holding capacity of rivers, wetlands and canals by dredging is urgently required. The empirical model of this study is intended to support adaptation planning in Bangladesh and can be used in other data-poor areas which will suffer from climate change